Can a space-faring robot still function over a billion years?What if time travel had to take into account...

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Can a space-faring robot still function over a billion years?


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This short story, which I've already written, is set in the FAR, FAR FUTURE, where a robotic space probe is exploring as much of the known universe as it can, despite its AI not knowing if its creators--humanity--still exists as a species. The exact number it has calculated to be slightly over a billion years since it first departed Earth.



Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage? If so, I'm curious what kind of materials don't deteriorate over time?










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    Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
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    – ShadoCat
    yesterday






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    @ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
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    – Darrel Hoffman
    yesterday






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    @DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
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    – jeffronicus
    yesterday






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    Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
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    – GrandOpener
    yesterday






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    Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
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    – Spencer
    yesterday
















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This short story, which I've already written, is set in the FAR, FAR FUTURE, where a robotic space probe is exploring as much of the known universe as it can, despite its AI not knowing if its creators--humanity--still exists as a species. The exact number it has calculated to be slightly over a billion years since it first departed Earth.



Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage? If so, I'm curious what kind of materials don't deteriorate over time?










share|improve this question







New contributor




Nathan Hopp is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$








  • 8




    $begingroup$
    Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
    $endgroup$
    – ShadoCat
    yesterday






  • 8




    $begingroup$
    @ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
    $endgroup$
    – Darrel Hoffman
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    @DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
    $endgroup$
    – jeffronicus
    yesterday






  • 13




    $begingroup$
    Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
    $endgroup$
    – GrandOpener
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
    $endgroup$
    – Spencer
    yesterday














25












25








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4



$begingroup$


This short story, which I've already written, is set in the FAR, FAR FUTURE, where a robotic space probe is exploring as much of the known universe as it can, despite its AI not knowing if its creators--humanity--still exists as a species. The exact number it has calculated to be slightly over a billion years since it first departed Earth.



Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage? If so, I'm curious what kind of materials don't deteriorate over time?










share|improve this question







New contributor




Nathan Hopp is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$




This short story, which I've already written, is set in the FAR, FAR FUTURE, where a robotic space probe is exploring as much of the known universe as it can, despite its AI not knowing if its creators--humanity--still exists as a species. The exact number it has calculated to be slightly over a billion years since it first departed Earth.



Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage? If so, I'm curious what kind of materials don't deteriorate over time?







science-based science-fiction space space-travel robots






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New contributor




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Check out our Code of Conduct.











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New contributor




Nathan Hopp is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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asked yesterday









Nathan HoppNathan Hopp

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New contributor




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New contributor





Nathan Hopp is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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  • 8




    $begingroup$
    Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
    $endgroup$
    – ShadoCat
    yesterday






  • 8




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    @ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
    $endgroup$
    – Darrel Hoffman
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    @DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
    $endgroup$
    – jeffronicus
    yesterday






  • 13




    $begingroup$
    Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
    $endgroup$
    – GrandOpener
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
    $endgroup$
    – Spencer
    yesterday














  • 8




    $begingroup$
    Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
    $endgroup$
    – ShadoCat
    yesterday






  • 8




    $begingroup$
    @ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
    $endgroup$
    – Darrel Hoffman
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    @DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
    $endgroup$
    – jeffronicus
    yesterday






  • 13




    $begingroup$
    Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
    $endgroup$
    – GrandOpener
    yesterday






  • 5




    $begingroup$
    Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
    $endgroup$
    – Spencer
    yesterday








8




8




$begingroup$
Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
$endgroup$
– ShadoCat
yesterday




$begingroup$
Have you seen Star Trek: The Motion Picture? Even a 1970s probe can do it with a little help from his friends.
$endgroup$
– ShadoCat
yesterday




8




8




$begingroup$
@ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
$endgroup$
– Darrel Hoffman
yesterday




$begingroup$
@ShadoCat V-Ger was only a couple hundred years old. That's a far cry from "over a billion"...
$endgroup$
– Darrel Hoffman
yesterday




5




5




$begingroup$
@DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
$endgroup$
– jeffronicus
yesterday




$begingroup$
@DarrelHoffman Oh ye of little time-displacement faith...
$endgroup$
– jeffronicus
yesterday




13




13




$begingroup$
Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
$endgroup$
– GrandOpener
yesterday




$begingroup$
Robots require maintenance. That's just a fact of the universe. NASA was still activating Voyager backup hardware systems at least as late as 2002, and has been carefully maintaining and modifying the instructions to control it throughout it's entire life. Without intending to disrespect your question, your robot needs to focus less on exotic materials and more on how it can perform maintenance and refueling tasks for itself. With sufficiently advanced self-maintenance systems, it can last indefinitely.
$endgroup$
– GrandOpener
yesterday




5




5




$begingroup$
Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
$endgroup$
– Spencer
yesterday




$begingroup$
Um, what's a "humanoid"space probe?
$endgroup$
– Spencer
yesterday










11 Answers
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Nope! (but you can still make this story work!)



So the short answer is no -




  • the power source would run out

  • the physical hardware of the computer, thrusters, etc. would degrade

  • high energy particles and high speed dust collisions would slowly convert the spacecraft into a ball of metal and rock


50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now, and a billion years is just too, too much longer than that to be reasonable.



BUT



What if it doesn't have to "last" that long at all?



Von Neumann Probes have been the stuff of sci-fi for decades. Have your spaceship stop in various systems, harvest new materials, repair itself, and move on. It's basically a gigantic factory, flying through space stuffed the the gills with spare parts.



The nice bonus for a short story is that now your AI can ponder if it has become "life" given that it grows, experiences the universe, and perhaps even procreates. How does this affect its relationship with the long lost human race?






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    on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
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    – rtpax
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    @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
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    – forest
    20 hours ago






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    An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
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    – Julian Egner
    18 hours ago






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    "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
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    – Abigail
    12 hours ago






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    We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
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    – Elliot Bonneville
    9 hours ago



















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Yes.



Relativity is on the robot's side. Using the Time Dilation Equation,



$$ t = cfrac{t_0}{sqrt{1-cfrac{v^2}{c^2}}} $$



where $t$ is time seen by stationary observer, $v$ is velocity, $t_0$ is time in rest frame, and $c$ is speed of light (≈ 2.998 × 108 m/s).



And if we apply the following values:



$ t = 1,000,000,000 $
$ v = 0.999999999999999 c $



We'll get a dilated distance of ~44.70.



So that means that if you make the robot accelerate to 99.9999999999999% of the speed of light and make it travel for 44.7 years (or 391570 hours) from its point of view, roughly a billion years will have passed for a stationary observer.



45 years seems to be a reasonable amount of time to keep a particularly sturdy robot operational.



(Disclaimer: The method to accelerate the robot to 0.999999999999999 c is left to the OP's discretion.)




Credits: Wolfram Alpha, Time Dilation Calculator






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    Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
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    – JollyJoker
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    @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
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    – chepner
    10 hours ago






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    Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
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    – Joshua
    9 hours ago








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    @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
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    – OnoSendai
    8 hours ago



















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The Centennial light is the world's longest-lasting light bulb, burning since 1901.



Electronic and/or electromechanical devices have been in use for less than that, but none of them has shown a lifetime longer than a few decades.




Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




Even if this device took no damage, which is already a far-fetched assumption, considering how "nice" space is (high energy photons and particles, strong magnetic fields), we have no power source which can supply energy at an appreciable level for such a long time span.



The only thing which has been able to self sustain for a billion years has been life as a whole, but it doesn't stand up in the environment of space.






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    I have to agree with others: self-repair is your only hope. Everything wears out, given enough time.



    You may want to see how other authors have addressed this. Robert Silverberg thought it could be done, in Across a Billion Years, but I don't recall that he specified how. James Hogan pointed out how self-repairing AIs might go wrong in Code of the Lifemaker.



    Meanwhile, Robert Moore Williams wrote in "Robots' Return" of a future so far that Man had become a myth among the robots.






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      Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
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      – Sid James
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      Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
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      – Jacob C.
      6 hours ago



















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    Have your robot based on crystals.



    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26324968
    zircon crystal




    A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest
    fragment of Earth's crust.



    The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western
    Australia.



    Scientists dated the crystal by studying its uranium and lead atoms.
    The former decays into the latter very slowly over time and can be
    used like a clock.




    Your robot uses solid state electronics based on zircon crystals. These are durable on Earth for billions of years and so with a modicum of shielding should do for your spacefarer. Extremities, probes and other moving apparati will probably be manufactured new for each solar system visited but the main program of the robot and its memory will be as immortal crystals.






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      I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
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      – Mad Physicist
      yesterday






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      'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
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      – Justin Thyme the Second
      yesterday








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      @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
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      – Willk
      yesterday






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      @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
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      – Willk
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      @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
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      – cmaster
      yesterday



















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    We have no good evidence for or against the possibility of any kind of machine remaining operable on those time-scales. That said,



    Probably, but not by accident.



    I'm going to ignore the various more creative options

    (on the one extreme, a completely passive porous rock that "explores" by absorbing stellar ions as it passes near each star)

    (on the other extreme, a dwarf-planet engineered to "naturally" evolve extremely specific kinds of life when warmed by a star)

    and focus on machines that are recognizably analogous to probes humans have already launched into space.



    In general, simpler devices will function longer.



    A probe designed for a 100-year mission, or even a 1k-year mission, would not still work after 1G-years, because its designers would have had no reason to make the kinds of compromises to the probes capabilities that would have been needed. For example, they would have wanted a smarter AI (requiring silicon transistors or similar electronics that degrade naturally on extreme timescales), more sensitive cameras (which would be more easily burnt out), or more powerful thrusters (which would have their own problems, and would add stress to all the other components).



    A machine that was still operating after 1Gy would be simple to the point of idiocy.




    • A camera? How about a single directional photo-sensor. We'll just sweep it across the sky to build a picture. We can refract the input and adjust the lens a little to get color.

    • On-board power? How about a 100m sphere of $^{40}mathsf{K}$. This person's estimates suggest it might work

    • Thrusters? How about we adjust a big electromagnet against the magnetic field of the nearest star. Might work if we plan our trajectory a millennia in advance and aren't too picky about where we're going.

    • An AI? Willk's answer is ok, but the electronics will still need to be over-built by a factor of a thousand. "Solid state" electronics do have moving parts: The electrons move back and forth, smashing into atoms. The atomic lattice jiggles around; defects form, heal, and move. Dopants diffuse. I think you can have a computer, maybe even an "AI", but it will be physically large, dumb as bricks by it's maker's standards, and slow.

    • Landing gear? Tools for making spare parts? NO! Absolutely not! This probe will never come within 30AU of a star, and will prioritize avoiding any close passes with any objects or phenomena.


    Even in principal, is it possible for a machine to last a billion years? I still think it is. Consider the surface of Ultima Thule. As long as the probe stays well away from all the excitement of inner solar-systems, space is a nice relaxed place to pass the eons.






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      You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
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      – forest
      20 hours ago










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      @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
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      – Agrajag
      18 hours ago










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      @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
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      – ShapeOfMatter
      11 hours ago






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      @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
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      – ShapeOfMatter
      11 hours ago










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      @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
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      – Agrajag
      11 hours ago



















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    Sure it can. Every critical system must exist in multiple copies and the robot must be capable of manufacturing replacement parts when it finds accessible raw material (say, an asteroid that it can land on.) You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy. In the extremes your "robot" is really a swarm, anyone of which can rebuild the whole swarm if need be. The robot spends a lot of time checking it's data for errors and repairing corruption from other copies or from error-correcting codes.



    A swarm approach actually makes repair easier as it means you can go with total replacement on some suitable timescale, thus avoiding headaches caused by transmutation-induced weakening of parts and the slow evaporation that happens to everything.






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      "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
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      – alephzero
      4 hours ago



















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    Your biggest problem is going to be entropy and redundancy.



    Entropy pretty much guarantees that anything, given enough time, will gp through molecular changes from the original. Atoms will migrate through the material, any exposed surface will diminish through vapor pressure, 'pure' substances will always become less pure, and after a billion years you will not have anything at the atomic level close to what you started with. So systems will have to be redundant to the extreme.



    Then, you have quantum effects. Quantum tunneling and indeterminacy. How do you prevent this from happening in critical systems?



    And, of course, there is radioactive decay. Elements change in physical properties as they go through such basic changes as emitting radiation.



    So is a billion years enough time for all of these things to affect critical systems? With today's level of technology, absolutely a certainty. No robotic system that we build will last a billion years.



    Consider recent history. As humans endeavored to reduce the size of computer chips, the first pentium processors began to suffer terminal illnesses. Turns out, the copper traces were so thin (atoms wide), that as high frequency electrons flowed through them and coursed around sharp corners, the electrons 'shortened' their path by rounding the corners into curved ones, and they began to short out on the traces beside them. Just the act of sending an electrical current through a copper wire is enough to cause it to change shape. So any computer chip microprocessor today is extremely unlikely to be operational in a billion years. It will be one huge mass of electrical shorts and cross signals. At most, it is extremely unlikely that any pentium processor in continuous use will last a hundred years without the circuits degrading enough to produce just random garbage in the data. Even twenty year old chips can no longer be relied upon in critical applications.



    And yes, that means any ICBM made more than twenty years ago, the electronics of which have not been replaced, should no longer be considered reliable enough to target and perform properly. ('Dang, it hit New York? It was supposed to be aimed for Moscow!!!!')






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      +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
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      – Mazura
      yesterday






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      $begingroup$
      And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
      $endgroup$
      – Justin Thyme the Second
      yesterday



















    1












    $begingroup$

    The chances for a modern day space probe to survive for 1 gyr and be anything but a metalrich asteroid are quite slim. How slim exactly depends on its speed and that it doesn't run into any big debris out there. While debris are rare and space is quite empty there is always a chance for bad luck. Speed and time are the factors here. If you plot a smart course with several solar flybys a few percent of lightspeed are on the table. Needless to say that this makes collisions way worse as
    Ekin = 0.5 * m * v^2.
    Even a few atoms might degrade the probe significantly at high speeds. Of course lower speeds could help, yet I assume you want the probe to get somewhere within 1 gyr.



    I'm not an expert on radiation induced material fatigue. Your probe will most likely suffer mostly from cosmic rays, but especially during solar flybys charged particle radiation will be an issue. Assume that the material will wither away over the eons.
    Your worst issue on the radiation front will be the breakdown of computers though. Look up the design of computers on mars rovers like opportunity for example.



    Less probable yet more intriguing story whise is data corruption. The mission (given more complex ai and some freedom to take decisions) statement might be "explore milky-way"; have some freak data corruption turn a r into a d and you have "explode milky-way". (Not very probable but an ai will do anything as long as it gets the reward circuit tickling).



    So the answer is no.
    BUT there might be a solution, albeit one using slightly future technologies.



    Don't aim for longevity, aim for maintenance. Pick a big (maybe 10 to 100 m diameter), metalrich asteroid and turn the whole thing into a probe. Reinforce it structurally to get meters of radiation and impact shielding. Have huge databanks and really smart or slavishly dumb, yet specialised AI. Most importantly you need manufactories capable of producing anything on the asteriod probe and redundancies for every system.



    For power you could employ a number of technologies. Nuclear reactors, (fusion or antimatter if available), radioisotope generators with an isotpe with a long (the desired mission time) half live, or solar panels during stellar flybys (you want to keep doing those as they counteract drag or slow you down if the system is interesting) (keep in mind that you can manufacture solar panels once you approach a system so the won't degrade). Generally beeing really conservative about using power will be helpfull as well. Let the probe hibernate during inter system flights and let it do the repair and exploration near stars where there is free energy and something to do.



    Now you might wonder how to move such a kiloton behemoth to interstellar velocities, yet thats not so hard. Huge lightsails, laser thermal rockets, nuclear rockets or even ion drives will move it eventually. Then you simply need to plot a very smart flyby course arround moons planets and suns and you might cruise of at a not insignificant portion of lightspeed. Astronomer Paul Birch once said that one could theoretically throw a pebble into the asteroid belt and end up crashing mars into the sun.



    Now even such a maintenance probe will run out of some resource (energy, ejection mass or raw materials) eventually or might degrade from collisions. (Come to think of it manufacturing, a huge thin mirror arround the probe when in a system seems highly beneficial. Use it as a high resolution telescope to scout out the system and the route ahead and use it as a solar sail to save ejection mass to get into an optimal gravity assist.) It is very conceivable that such a probe might survive for a billion years.



    PS:Check out this video, it deals with constructing a spaceship for similar ammounts of time.
    https://youtu.be/25ODAzr6Bbw






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$





















      1












      $begingroup$


      Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




      If you want a "real science" answer: No



      Most people won't know this, so publish your story anyway - I'd read it.

      Many people know that "Transistors don't have moving parts,"

      but then wrongly believe that implies: "so they never fail."



      If you're interested in the science:



      Transistors built 50+ years ago are likely still working fine today if they were cared for properly, and may be expected to work without issue for 1,000 years in the future (maximum life approx 10,000 years).



      Let's ignore the additional problems of traveling through space for even a century - as most of those (radiation/power/propulsion) are insurmountable given today's knowledge.



      A probe that is 'smart' enough to be called AI would likely be based on current technologies.

      Modern chips have very very small transistors with very very small connectors.



      Part of the reason that integrated circuit voltages have gone down is that the smaller the "wires" the more troubles you have, like electromigration (as the device is used, current flowing through the circuit causes the metal to actually move around which can form opens or shorts in your circuit).

      As transistors get smaller, you see problems that weren't even known recently such as Hot-carrier injection (where the switching characteristics of the transistor can be permanently changed).



      A good read is "Transistor Aging" in IEEE. The article's focus is how to test transistors, but you'll learn some stuff related to your question if you read through it. It contains on of the better descriptions of Hot-carrier injection that I've encountered:




      "Over time, charge carriers... with a little more energy than the average, will stray out of the conductive channel between the source and drain and get trapped in the insulating dielectric. This process, called hot-carrier injection, eventually builds up electric charge within the dielectric layer, increasing the voltage needed to turn the transistor on. As this threshold voltage increases, the transistor switches more and more slowly."




      A slowing of switching (your probe's computer computes slower) and a need for increased voltage (your probe's power consumption increases over time) spell doom for a "real science" answer to a space probe that lasts a million years.



      I will restate my opinion that your stories do not need to be completely based in 'real science' to be enjoyed.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$





















        1












        $begingroup$

        Interesting question; this timeline will probably cause your craft to encouter issues never before seen. You will need some sort of material that is not easily affected by radiation. Perhaps Tungsten would be a good material for your craft's shielding? Tungsten is the densest metal on the planet.



        Also, we currently struggle with computer memory degradation for long term storage, our best and most stable storage devices currently are, oddly enough, clay pots and magnetic tape. Crystal based memory has shown good potentiality for overcoming those challenges.



        Superman style crystal memory storage. Think of the Fortress of Solitude.




        Researchers at the University of Southampton have discovered a way to store data in five dimensions on nanostructure glass that can survive for billions of years.



        The storage method enables up to 360TB of capacity on a disc about one-inch in diameter that can withstand temperatures of up to 1,000 degrees Celsius and has a virtually unlimited lifetime at room temperature (13.8 billion years at 190 Celsius).



        "As a very stable and safe form of portable memory, the technology could be highly useful for organizations with big archives, such as national archives, museums and libraries, to preserve their information and records," the researchers said.



        The technology has already allowed major documents from human history such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Newton's Opticks, the Magna Carta and the Kings James Bible, to be saved as digital copies "that could survive the human race," the researchers said.







        share|improve this answer










        New contributor




        MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.






        $endgroup$









        • 1




          $begingroup$
          Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
          $endgroup$
          – Agrajag
          yesterday








        • 1




          $begingroup$
          A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
          $endgroup$
          – Mark
          yesterday











        Your Answer





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        11 Answers
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        47












        $begingroup$

        Nope! (but you can still make this story work!)



        So the short answer is no -




        • the power source would run out

        • the physical hardware of the computer, thrusters, etc. would degrade

        • high energy particles and high speed dust collisions would slowly convert the spacecraft into a ball of metal and rock


        50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now, and a billion years is just too, too much longer than that to be reasonable.



        BUT



        What if it doesn't have to "last" that long at all?



        Von Neumann Probes have been the stuff of sci-fi for decades. Have your spaceship stop in various systems, harvest new materials, repair itself, and move on. It's basically a gigantic factory, flying through space stuffed the the gills with spare parts.



        The nice bonus for a short story is that now your AI can ponder if it has become "life" given that it grows, experiences the universe, and perhaps even procreates. How does this affect its relationship with the long lost human race?






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$









        • 2




          $begingroup$
          on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
          $endgroup$
          – rtpax
          yesterday






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
          $endgroup$
          – forest
          20 hours ago






        • 3




          $begingroup$
          An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
          $endgroup$
          – Julian Egner
          18 hours ago






        • 7




          $begingroup$
          "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
          $endgroup$
          – Abigail
          12 hours ago






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
          $endgroup$
          – Elliot Bonneville
          9 hours ago
















        47












        $begingroup$

        Nope! (but you can still make this story work!)



        So the short answer is no -




        • the power source would run out

        • the physical hardware of the computer, thrusters, etc. would degrade

        • high energy particles and high speed dust collisions would slowly convert the spacecraft into a ball of metal and rock


        50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now, and a billion years is just too, too much longer than that to be reasonable.



        BUT



        What if it doesn't have to "last" that long at all?



        Von Neumann Probes have been the stuff of sci-fi for decades. Have your spaceship stop in various systems, harvest new materials, repair itself, and move on. It's basically a gigantic factory, flying through space stuffed the the gills with spare parts.



        The nice bonus for a short story is that now your AI can ponder if it has become "life" given that it grows, experiences the universe, and perhaps even procreates. How does this affect its relationship with the long lost human race?






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$









        • 2




          $begingroup$
          on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
          $endgroup$
          – rtpax
          yesterday






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
          $endgroup$
          – forest
          20 hours ago






        • 3




          $begingroup$
          An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
          $endgroup$
          – Julian Egner
          18 hours ago






        • 7




          $begingroup$
          "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
          $endgroup$
          – Abigail
          12 hours ago






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
          $endgroup$
          – Elliot Bonneville
          9 hours ago














        47












        47








        47





        $begingroup$

        Nope! (but you can still make this story work!)



        So the short answer is no -




        • the power source would run out

        • the physical hardware of the computer, thrusters, etc. would degrade

        • high energy particles and high speed dust collisions would slowly convert the spacecraft into a ball of metal and rock


        50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now, and a billion years is just too, too much longer than that to be reasonable.



        BUT



        What if it doesn't have to "last" that long at all?



        Von Neumann Probes have been the stuff of sci-fi for decades. Have your spaceship stop in various systems, harvest new materials, repair itself, and move on. It's basically a gigantic factory, flying through space stuffed the the gills with spare parts.



        The nice bonus for a short story is that now your AI can ponder if it has become "life" given that it grows, experiences the universe, and perhaps even procreates. How does this affect its relationship with the long lost human race?






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$



        Nope! (but you can still make this story work!)



        So the short answer is no -




        • the power source would run out

        • the physical hardware of the computer, thrusters, etc. would degrade

        • high energy particles and high speed dust collisions would slowly convert the spacecraft into a ball of metal and rock


        50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now, and a billion years is just too, too much longer than that to be reasonable.



        BUT



        What if it doesn't have to "last" that long at all?



        Von Neumann Probes have been the stuff of sci-fi for decades. Have your spaceship stop in various systems, harvest new materials, repair itself, and move on. It's basically a gigantic factory, flying through space stuffed the the gills with spare parts.



        The nice bonus for a short story is that now your AI can ponder if it has become "life" given that it grows, experiences the universe, and perhaps even procreates. How does this affect its relationship with the long lost human race?







        share|improve this answer














        share|improve this answer



        share|improve this answer








        edited 11 hours ago

























        answered yesterday









        codeMonkeycodeMonkey

        2,724815




        2,724815








        • 2




          $begingroup$
          on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
          $endgroup$
          – rtpax
          yesterday






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
          $endgroup$
          – forest
          20 hours ago






        • 3




          $begingroup$
          An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
          $endgroup$
          – Julian Egner
          18 hours ago






        • 7




          $begingroup$
          "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
          $endgroup$
          – Abigail
          12 hours ago






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
          $endgroup$
          – Elliot Bonneville
          9 hours ago














        • 2




          $begingroup$
          on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
          $endgroup$
          – rtpax
          yesterday






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
          $endgroup$
          – forest
          20 hours ago






        • 3




          $begingroup$
          An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
          $endgroup$
          – Julian Egner
          18 hours ago






        • 7




          $begingroup$
          "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
          $endgroup$
          – Abigail
          12 hours ago






        • 2




          $begingroup$
          We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
          $endgroup$
          – Elliot Bonneville
          9 hours ago








        2




        2




        $begingroup$
        on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
        $endgroup$
        – rtpax
        yesterday




        $begingroup$
        on a similar vein to vonn neumann probes, you could have a limited number of probes that repair each other. The repairs might be so involved that not a single atom of the original remains, but hey
        $endgroup$
        – rtpax
        yesterday




        2




        2




        $begingroup$
        @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
        $endgroup$
        – forest
        20 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        @SebastiaanvandenBroek Nope. Unless it's moving at relativistic speeds, the expansion of the universe would outrun it fast enough that it would never reach far enough to have a significant chance of being next to a supernova.
        $endgroup$
        – forest
        20 hours ago




        3




        3




        $begingroup$
        An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
        $endgroup$
        – Julian Egner
        18 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        An AI would fast come to the point that it is much more efficient and safer to duplicate itself to fulfill the task. Would be a nice sub-story when two of these clones meet each other
        $endgroup$
        – Julian Egner
        18 hours ago




        7




        7




        $begingroup$
        "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
        $endgroup$
        – Abigail
        12 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        "50 years is probably about the limit of what is achievable right now". That may be a tad conservative. Voyagers 1 and 2 were launched over 40 years ago, and are expecting to last till the mid 2020s. And that was with 1960s/1970s technology. Opportunity lasted for about 14 years on a much harsher environment than space. If we were to build something with longevity as a goal, I've no doubt 50 years is an easy goal. Of course, that still leaves a billion years way out of reach.
        $endgroup$
        – Abigail
        12 hours ago




        2




        2




        $begingroup$
        We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
        $endgroup$
        – Elliot Bonneville
        9 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        We Are Legion (We Are Bob), by Dennis E. Taylor. All that needs to be said.
        $endgroup$
        – Elliot Bonneville
        9 hours ago











        18












        $begingroup$

        Yes.



        Relativity is on the robot's side. Using the Time Dilation Equation,



        $$ t = cfrac{t_0}{sqrt{1-cfrac{v^2}{c^2}}} $$



        where $t$ is time seen by stationary observer, $v$ is velocity, $t_0$ is time in rest frame, and $c$ is speed of light (≈ 2.998 × 108 m/s).



        And if we apply the following values:



        $ t = 1,000,000,000 $
        $ v = 0.999999999999999 c $



        We'll get a dilated distance of ~44.70.



        So that means that if you make the robot accelerate to 99.9999999999999% of the speed of light and make it travel for 44.7 years (or 391570 hours) from its point of view, roughly a billion years will have passed for a stationary observer.



        45 years seems to be a reasonable amount of time to keep a particularly sturdy robot operational.



        (Disclaimer: The method to accelerate the robot to 0.999999999999999 c is left to the OP's discretion.)




        Credits: Wolfram Alpha, Time Dilation Calculator






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$









        • 13




          $begingroup$
          Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
          $endgroup$
          – JollyJoker
          18 hours ago










        • $begingroup$
          @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
          $endgroup$
          – chepner
          10 hours ago






        • 1




          $begingroup$
          Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
          $endgroup$
          – Joshua
          9 hours ago








        • 1




          $begingroup$
          @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
          $endgroup$
          – OnoSendai
          8 hours ago
















        18












        $begingroup$

        Yes.



        Relativity is on the robot's side. Using the Time Dilation Equation,



        $$ t = cfrac{t_0}{sqrt{1-cfrac{v^2}{c^2}}} $$



        where $t$ is time seen by stationary observer, $v$ is velocity, $t_0$ is time in rest frame, and $c$ is speed of light (≈ 2.998 × 108 m/s).



        And if we apply the following values:



        $ t = 1,000,000,000 $
        $ v = 0.999999999999999 c $



        We'll get a dilated distance of ~44.70.



        So that means that if you make the robot accelerate to 99.9999999999999% of the speed of light and make it travel for 44.7 years (or 391570 hours) from its point of view, roughly a billion years will have passed for a stationary observer.



        45 years seems to be a reasonable amount of time to keep a particularly sturdy robot operational.



        (Disclaimer: The method to accelerate the robot to 0.999999999999999 c is left to the OP's discretion.)




        Credits: Wolfram Alpha, Time Dilation Calculator






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$









        • 13




          $begingroup$
          Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
          $endgroup$
          – JollyJoker
          18 hours ago










        • $begingroup$
          @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
          $endgroup$
          – chepner
          10 hours ago






        • 1




          $begingroup$
          Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
          $endgroup$
          – Joshua
          9 hours ago








        • 1




          $begingroup$
          @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
          $endgroup$
          – OnoSendai
          8 hours ago














        18












        18








        18





        $begingroup$

        Yes.



        Relativity is on the robot's side. Using the Time Dilation Equation,



        $$ t = cfrac{t_0}{sqrt{1-cfrac{v^2}{c^2}}} $$



        where $t$ is time seen by stationary observer, $v$ is velocity, $t_0$ is time in rest frame, and $c$ is speed of light (≈ 2.998 × 108 m/s).



        And if we apply the following values:



        $ t = 1,000,000,000 $
        $ v = 0.999999999999999 c $



        We'll get a dilated distance of ~44.70.



        So that means that if you make the robot accelerate to 99.9999999999999% of the speed of light and make it travel for 44.7 years (or 391570 hours) from its point of view, roughly a billion years will have passed for a stationary observer.



        45 years seems to be a reasonable amount of time to keep a particularly sturdy robot operational.



        (Disclaimer: The method to accelerate the robot to 0.999999999999999 c is left to the OP's discretion.)




        Credits: Wolfram Alpha, Time Dilation Calculator






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$



        Yes.



        Relativity is on the robot's side. Using the Time Dilation Equation,



        $$ t = cfrac{t_0}{sqrt{1-cfrac{v^2}{c^2}}} $$



        where $t$ is time seen by stationary observer, $v$ is velocity, $t_0$ is time in rest frame, and $c$ is speed of light (≈ 2.998 × 108 m/s).



        And if we apply the following values:



        $ t = 1,000,000,000 $
        $ v = 0.999999999999999 c $



        We'll get a dilated distance of ~44.70.



        So that means that if you make the robot accelerate to 99.9999999999999% of the speed of light and make it travel for 44.7 years (or 391570 hours) from its point of view, roughly a billion years will have passed for a stationary observer.



        45 years seems to be a reasonable amount of time to keep a particularly sturdy robot operational.



        (Disclaimer: The method to accelerate the robot to 0.999999999999999 c is left to the OP's discretion.)




        Credits: Wolfram Alpha, Time Dilation Calculator







        share|improve this answer














        share|improve this answer



        share|improve this answer








        edited 17 hours ago









        a CVn

        21.8k1291179




        21.8k1291179










        answered yesterday









        OnoSendaiOnoSendai

        4,48511024




        4,48511024








        • 13




          $begingroup$
          Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
          $endgroup$
          – JollyJoker
          18 hours ago










        • $begingroup$
          @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
          $endgroup$
          – chepner
          10 hours ago






        • 1




          $begingroup$
          Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
          $endgroup$
          – Joshua
          9 hours ago








        • 1




          $begingroup$
          @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
          $endgroup$
          – OnoSendai
          8 hours ago














        • 13




          $begingroup$
          Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
          $endgroup$
          – JollyJoker
          18 hours ago










        • $begingroup$
          @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
          $endgroup$
          – chepner
          10 hours ago






        • 1




          $begingroup$
          Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
          $endgroup$
          – Joshua
          9 hours ago








        • 1




          $begingroup$
          @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
          $endgroup$
          – OnoSendai
          8 hours ago








        13




        13




        $begingroup$
        Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
        $endgroup$
        – JollyJoker
        18 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        Not so sure time dilation actually makes something last longer. Even in interstellar space, traveling at that speed would make it encounter hydrogen atoms that strike like nuclear bombs. Finding a cave on an airless moon and just sitting in place may be better in the long term
        $endgroup$
        – JollyJoker
        18 hours ago












        $begingroup$
        @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
        $endgroup$
        – chepner
        10 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        @JollyJoker Time dilation itself is sufficient; see hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/Relativ/muon.html. Surviving high-speed impact with interstellar gas is a separate issue :)
        $endgroup$
        – chepner
        10 hours ago




        1




        1




        $begingroup$
        Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
        $endgroup$
        – Joshua
        9 hours ago






        $begingroup$
        Does not work; the intragalactic medium erodes your probe. It will be a cloud of disorganized atoms before a day passes as observed by a stationary observer.
        $endgroup$
        – Joshua
        9 hours ago






        1




        1




        $begingroup$
        @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
        $endgroup$
        – OnoSendai
        8 hours ago




        $begingroup$
        @Joshua assuming no shielding/deflection; can be influenced by robot size/cross-section (a needle-like nanomachine is much harder to hit than a transatlantic-sized device) ; And yes, you need to pick your harsh mistress, Time or Speed.
        $endgroup$
        – OnoSendai
        8 hours ago











        12












        $begingroup$

        The Centennial light is the world's longest-lasting light bulb, burning since 1901.



        Electronic and/or electromechanical devices have been in use for less than that, but none of them has shown a lifetime longer than a few decades.




        Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




        Even if this device took no damage, which is already a far-fetched assumption, considering how "nice" space is (high energy photons and particles, strong magnetic fields), we have no power source which can supply energy at an appreciable level for such a long time span.



        The only thing which has been able to self sustain for a billion years has been life as a whole, but it doesn't stand up in the environment of space.






        share|improve this answer











        $endgroup$


















          12












          $begingroup$

          The Centennial light is the world's longest-lasting light bulb, burning since 1901.



          Electronic and/or electromechanical devices have been in use for less than that, but none of them has shown a lifetime longer than a few decades.




          Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




          Even if this device took no damage, which is already a far-fetched assumption, considering how "nice" space is (high energy photons and particles, strong magnetic fields), we have no power source which can supply energy at an appreciable level for such a long time span.



          The only thing which has been able to self sustain for a billion years has been life as a whole, but it doesn't stand up in the environment of space.






          share|improve this answer











          $endgroup$
















            12












            12








            12





            $begingroup$

            The Centennial light is the world's longest-lasting light bulb, burning since 1901.



            Electronic and/or electromechanical devices have been in use for less than that, but none of them has shown a lifetime longer than a few decades.




            Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




            Even if this device took no damage, which is already a far-fetched assumption, considering how "nice" space is (high energy photons and particles, strong magnetic fields), we have no power source which can supply energy at an appreciable level for such a long time span.



            The only thing which has been able to self sustain for a billion years has been life as a whole, but it doesn't stand up in the environment of space.






            share|improve this answer











            $endgroup$



            The Centennial light is the world's longest-lasting light bulb, burning since 1901.



            Electronic and/or electromechanical devices have been in use for less than that, but none of them has shown a lifetime longer than a few decades.




            Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




            Even if this device took no damage, which is already a far-fetched assumption, considering how "nice" space is (high energy photons and particles, strong magnetic fields), we have no power source which can supply energy at an appreciable level for such a long time span.



            The only thing which has been able to self sustain for a billion years has been life as a whole, but it doesn't stand up in the environment of space.







            share|improve this answer














            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer








            edited yesterday









            jdunlop

            7,95311846




            7,95311846










            answered yesterday









            L.DutchL.Dutch

            86.2k29201421




            86.2k29201421























                10












                $begingroup$

                I have to agree with others: self-repair is your only hope. Everything wears out, given enough time.



                You may want to see how other authors have addressed this. Robert Silverberg thought it could be done, in Across a Billion Years, but I don't recall that he specified how. James Hogan pointed out how self-repairing AIs might go wrong in Code of the Lifemaker.



                Meanwhile, Robert Moore Williams wrote in "Robots' Return" of a future so far that Man had become a myth among the robots.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 2




                  $begingroup$
                  Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Sid James
                  yesterday












                • $begingroup$
                  Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Jacob C.
                  6 hours ago
















                10












                $begingroup$

                I have to agree with others: self-repair is your only hope. Everything wears out, given enough time.



                You may want to see how other authors have addressed this. Robert Silverberg thought it could be done, in Across a Billion Years, but I don't recall that he specified how. James Hogan pointed out how self-repairing AIs might go wrong in Code of the Lifemaker.



                Meanwhile, Robert Moore Williams wrote in "Robots' Return" of a future so far that Man had become a myth among the robots.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 2




                  $begingroup$
                  Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Sid James
                  yesterday












                • $begingroup$
                  Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Jacob C.
                  6 hours ago














                10












                10








                10





                $begingroup$

                I have to agree with others: self-repair is your only hope. Everything wears out, given enough time.



                You may want to see how other authors have addressed this. Robert Silverberg thought it could be done, in Across a Billion Years, but I don't recall that he specified how. James Hogan pointed out how self-repairing AIs might go wrong in Code of the Lifemaker.



                Meanwhile, Robert Moore Williams wrote in "Robots' Return" of a future so far that Man had become a myth among the robots.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                I have to agree with others: self-repair is your only hope. Everything wears out, given enough time.



                You may want to see how other authors have addressed this. Robert Silverberg thought it could be done, in Across a Billion Years, but I don't recall that he specified how. James Hogan pointed out how self-repairing AIs might go wrong in Code of the Lifemaker.



                Meanwhile, Robert Moore Williams wrote in "Robots' Return" of a future so far that Man had become a myth among the robots.







                share|improve this answer












                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer










                answered yesterday









                Mark WoodMark Wood

                31113




                31113








                • 2




                  $begingroup$
                  Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Sid James
                  yesterday












                • $begingroup$
                  Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Jacob C.
                  6 hours ago














                • 2




                  $begingroup$
                  Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Sid James
                  yesterday












                • $begingroup$
                  Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Jacob C.
                  6 hours ago








                2




                2




                $begingroup$
                Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                $endgroup$
                – Sid James
                yesterday






                $begingroup$
                Yep, what Mark said. Maybe have self-replicating repair nano-bots to automatically maintain the host? In theory that 'system state' only wears out if raw materials (or their fundamental properties) cease to be available.
                $endgroup$
                – Sid James
                yesterday














                $begingroup$
                Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                $endgroup$
                – Jacob C.
                6 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                Stanisław Lem earlier explored the idea of robot evolution as well, in The Invincible.
                $endgroup$
                – Jacob C.
                6 hours ago











                9












                $begingroup$

                Have your robot based on crystals.



                https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26324968
                zircon crystal




                A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest
                fragment of Earth's crust.



                The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western
                Australia.



                Scientists dated the crystal by studying its uranium and lead atoms.
                The former decays into the latter very slowly over time and can be
                used like a clock.




                Your robot uses solid state electronics based on zircon crystals. These are durable on Earth for billions of years and so with a modicum of shielding should do for your spacefarer. Extremities, probes and other moving apparati will probably be manufactured new for each solar system visited but the main program of the robot and its memory will be as immortal crystals.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 3




                  $begingroup$
                  I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mad Physicist
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday








                • 4




                  $begingroup$
                  @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                  $endgroup$
                  – cmaster
                  yesterday
















                9












                $begingroup$

                Have your robot based on crystals.



                https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26324968
                zircon crystal




                A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest
                fragment of Earth's crust.



                The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western
                Australia.



                Scientists dated the crystal by studying its uranium and lead atoms.
                The former decays into the latter very slowly over time and can be
                used like a clock.




                Your robot uses solid state electronics based on zircon crystals. These are durable on Earth for billions of years and so with a modicum of shielding should do for your spacefarer. Extremities, probes and other moving apparati will probably be manufactured new for each solar system visited but the main program of the robot and its memory will be as immortal crystals.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 3




                  $begingroup$
                  I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mad Physicist
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday








                • 4




                  $begingroup$
                  @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                  $endgroup$
                  – cmaster
                  yesterday














                9












                9








                9





                $begingroup$

                Have your robot based on crystals.



                https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26324968
                zircon crystal




                A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest
                fragment of Earth's crust.



                The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western
                Australia.



                Scientists dated the crystal by studying its uranium and lead atoms.
                The former decays into the latter very slowly over time and can be
                used like a clock.




                Your robot uses solid state electronics based on zircon crystals. These are durable on Earth for billions of years and so with a modicum of shielding should do for your spacefarer. Extremities, probes and other moving apparati will probably be manufactured new for each solar system visited but the main program of the robot and its memory will be as immortal crystals.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                Have your robot based on crystals.



                https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26324968
                zircon crystal




                A tiny 4.4-billion-year-old crystal has been confirmed as the oldest
                fragment of Earth's crust.



                The zircon was found in sandstone in the Jack Hills region of Western
                Australia.



                Scientists dated the crystal by studying its uranium and lead atoms.
                The former decays into the latter very slowly over time and can be
                used like a clock.




                Your robot uses solid state electronics based on zircon crystals. These are durable on Earth for billions of years and so with a modicum of shielding should do for your spacefarer. Extremities, probes and other moving apparati will probably be manufactured new for each solar system visited but the main program of the robot and its memory will be as immortal crystals.







                share|improve this answer












                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer










                answered yesterday









                WillkWillk

                111k26207462




                111k26207462








                • 3




                  $begingroup$
                  I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mad Physicist
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday








                • 4




                  $begingroup$
                  @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                  $endgroup$
                  – cmaster
                  yesterday














                • 3




                  $begingroup$
                  I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mad Physicist
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday








                • 4




                  $begingroup$
                  @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Willk
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                  $endgroup$
                  – cmaster
                  yesterday








                3




                3




                $begingroup$
                I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                $endgroup$
                – Mad Physicist
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                I never really understood what "the oldest fragment of Earth's crust" really means. Am I not made of fragments of the Earth's crust too?
                $endgroup$
                – Mad Physicist
                yesterday




                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                $endgroup$
                – Justin Thyme the Second
                yesterday






                $begingroup$
                'The former decays into the latter very slowly over time ' Aye and therein is the rub. Any memory or data that it encoded is now corrupt. It may still exist, but can it FUNCTION?
                $endgroup$
                – Justin Thyme the Second
                yesterday






                4




                4




                $begingroup$
                @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                $endgroup$
                – Willk
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                @Mad Physicist - I think you will find those fragments of "Earth's crust" are only loosely adherent to you. They will wash off. Use soap. Possibly a loofah.
                $endgroup$
                – Willk
                yesterday




                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                $endgroup$
                – Willk
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                @JustinThymetheSecond - re decay - it is random. By having multiple copies and periodically checking against each other you can correct corruption due to decay, as random change will likely occur in only 1 iteration of your memory. When outvoted the different one is changed to match the others.
                $endgroup$
                – Willk
                yesterday




                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                $endgroup$
                – cmaster
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                @JustinThymetheSecond That sentence applies to the elements uranium and lead, only. Those are just present in the form impurity traces, they are not a part of any importance, except for their usability as a long-time clock. A crystal based robot won't be fabricated to rely on radioactive materials.
                $endgroup$
                – cmaster
                yesterday











                6












                $begingroup$

                We have no good evidence for or against the possibility of any kind of machine remaining operable on those time-scales. That said,



                Probably, but not by accident.



                I'm going to ignore the various more creative options

                (on the one extreme, a completely passive porous rock that "explores" by absorbing stellar ions as it passes near each star)

                (on the other extreme, a dwarf-planet engineered to "naturally" evolve extremely specific kinds of life when warmed by a star)

                and focus on machines that are recognizably analogous to probes humans have already launched into space.



                In general, simpler devices will function longer.



                A probe designed for a 100-year mission, or even a 1k-year mission, would not still work after 1G-years, because its designers would have had no reason to make the kinds of compromises to the probes capabilities that would have been needed. For example, they would have wanted a smarter AI (requiring silicon transistors or similar electronics that degrade naturally on extreme timescales), more sensitive cameras (which would be more easily burnt out), or more powerful thrusters (which would have their own problems, and would add stress to all the other components).



                A machine that was still operating after 1Gy would be simple to the point of idiocy.




                • A camera? How about a single directional photo-sensor. We'll just sweep it across the sky to build a picture. We can refract the input and adjust the lens a little to get color.

                • On-board power? How about a 100m sphere of $^{40}mathsf{K}$. This person's estimates suggest it might work

                • Thrusters? How about we adjust a big electromagnet against the magnetic field of the nearest star. Might work if we plan our trajectory a millennia in advance and aren't too picky about where we're going.

                • An AI? Willk's answer is ok, but the electronics will still need to be over-built by a factor of a thousand. "Solid state" electronics do have moving parts: The electrons move back and forth, smashing into atoms. The atomic lattice jiggles around; defects form, heal, and move. Dopants diffuse. I think you can have a computer, maybe even an "AI", but it will be physically large, dumb as bricks by it's maker's standards, and slow.

                • Landing gear? Tools for making spare parts? NO! Absolutely not! This probe will never come within 30AU of a star, and will prioritize avoiding any close passes with any objects or phenomena.


                Even in principal, is it possible for a machine to last a billion years? I still think it is. Consider the surface of Ultima Thule. As long as the probe stays well away from all the excitement of inner solar-systems, space is a nice relaxed place to pass the eons.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                  $endgroup$
                  – forest
                  20 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  18 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  11 hours ago
















                6












                $begingroup$

                We have no good evidence for or against the possibility of any kind of machine remaining operable on those time-scales. That said,



                Probably, but not by accident.



                I'm going to ignore the various more creative options

                (on the one extreme, a completely passive porous rock that "explores" by absorbing stellar ions as it passes near each star)

                (on the other extreme, a dwarf-planet engineered to "naturally" evolve extremely specific kinds of life when warmed by a star)

                and focus on machines that are recognizably analogous to probes humans have already launched into space.



                In general, simpler devices will function longer.



                A probe designed for a 100-year mission, or even a 1k-year mission, would not still work after 1G-years, because its designers would have had no reason to make the kinds of compromises to the probes capabilities that would have been needed. For example, they would have wanted a smarter AI (requiring silicon transistors or similar electronics that degrade naturally on extreme timescales), more sensitive cameras (which would be more easily burnt out), or more powerful thrusters (which would have their own problems, and would add stress to all the other components).



                A machine that was still operating after 1Gy would be simple to the point of idiocy.




                • A camera? How about a single directional photo-sensor. We'll just sweep it across the sky to build a picture. We can refract the input and adjust the lens a little to get color.

                • On-board power? How about a 100m sphere of $^{40}mathsf{K}$. This person's estimates suggest it might work

                • Thrusters? How about we adjust a big electromagnet against the magnetic field of the nearest star. Might work if we plan our trajectory a millennia in advance and aren't too picky about where we're going.

                • An AI? Willk's answer is ok, but the electronics will still need to be over-built by a factor of a thousand. "Solid state" electronics do have moving parts: The electrons move back and forth, smashing into atoms. The atomic lattice jiggles around; defects form, heal, and move. Dopants diffuse. I think you can have a computer, maybe even an "AI", but it will be physically large, dumb as bricks by it's maker's standards, and slow.

                • Landing gear? Tools for making spare parts? NO! Absolutely not! This probe will never come within 30AU of a star, and will prioritize avoiding any close passes with any objects or phenomena.


                Even in principal, is it possible for a machine to last a billion years? I still think it is. Consider the surface of Ultima Thule. As long as the probe stays well away from all the excitement of inner solar-systems, space is a nice relaxed place to pass the eons.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$









                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                  $endgroup$
                  – forest
                  20 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  18 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  11 hours ago














                6












                6








                6





                $begingroup$

                We have no good evidence for or against the possibility of any kind of machine remaining operable on those time-scales. That said,



                Probably, but not by accident.



                I'm going to ignore the various more creative options

                (on the one extreme, a completely passive porous rock that "explores" by absorbing stellar ions as it passes near each star)

                (on the other extreme, a dwarf-planet engineered to "naturally" evolve extremely specific kinds of life when warmed by a star)

                and focus on machines that are recognizably analogous to probes humans have already launched into space.



                In general, simpler devices will function longer.



                A probe designed for a 100-year mission, or even a 1k-year mission, would not still work after 1G-years, because its designers would have had no reason to make the kinds of compromises to the probes capabilities that would have been needed. For example, they would have wanted a smarter AI (requiring silicon transistors or similar electronics that degrade naturally on extreme timescales), more sensitive cameras (which would be more easily burnt out), or more powerful thrusters (which would have their own problems, and would add stress to all the other components).



                A machine that was still operating after 1Gy would be simple to the point of idiocy.




                • A camera? How about a single directional photo-sensor. We'll just sweep it across the sky to build a picture. We can refract the input and adjust the lens a little to get color.

                • On-board power? How about a 100m sphere of $^{40}mathsf{K}$. This person's estimates suggest it might work

                • Thrusters? How about we adjust a big electromagnet against the magnetic field of the nearest star. Might work if we plan our trajectory a millennia in advance and aren't too picky about where we're going.

                • An AI? Willk's answer is ok, but the electronics will still need to be over-built by a factor of a thousand. "Solid state" electronics do have moving parts: The electrons move back and forth, smashing into atoms. The atomic lattice jiggles around; defects form, heal, and move. Dopants diffuse. I think you can have a computer, maybe even an "AI", but it will be physically large, dumb as bricks by it's maker's standards, and slow.

                • Landing gear? Tools for making spare parts? NO! Absolutely not! This probe will never come within 30AU of a star, and will prioritize avoiding any close passes with any objects or phenomena.


                Even in principal, is it possible for a machine to last a billion years? I still think it is. Consider the surface of Ultima Thule. As long as the probe stays well away from all the excitement of inner solar-systems, space is a nice relaxed place to pass the eons.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                We have no good evidence for or against the possibility of any kind of machine remaining operable on those time-scales. That said,



                Probably, but not by accident.



                I'm going to ignore the various more creative options

                (on the one extreme, a completely passive porous rock that "explores" by absorbing stellar ions as it passes near each star)

                (on the other extreme, a dwarf-planet engineered to "naturally" evolve extremely specific kinds of life when warmed by a star)

                and focus on machines that are recognizably analogous to probes humans have already launched into space.



                In general, simpler devices will function longer.



                A probe designed for a 100-year mission, or even a 1k-year mission, would not still work after 1G-years, because its designers would have had no reason to make the kinds of compromises to the probes capabilities that would have been needed. For example, they would have wanted a smarter AI (requiring silicon transistors or similar electronics that degrade naturally on extreme timescales), more sensitive cameras (which would be more easily burnt out), or more powerful thrusters (which would have their own problems, and would add stress to all the other components).



                A machine that was still operating after 1Gy would be simple to the point of idiocy.




                • A camera? How about a single directional photo-sensor. We'll just sweep it across the sky to build a picture. We can refract the input and adjust the lens a little to get color.

                • On-board power? How about a 100m sphere of $^{40}mathsf{K}$. This person's estimates suggest it might work

                • Thrusters? How about we adjust a big electromagnet against the magnetic field of the nearest star. Might work if we plan our trajectory a millennia in advance and aren't too picky about where we're going.

                • An AI? Willk's answer is ok, but the electronics will still need to be over-built by a factor of a thousand. "Solid state" electronics do have moving parts: The electrons move back and forth, smashing into atoms. The atomic lattice jiggles around; defects form, heal, and move. Dopants diffuse. I think you can have a computer, maybe even an "AI", but it will be physically large, dumb as bricks by it's maker's standards, and slow.

                • Landing gear? Tools for making spare parts? NO! Absolutely not! This probe will never come within 30AU of a star, and will prioritize avoiding any close passes with any objects or phenomena.


                Even in principal, is it possible for a machine to last a billion years? I still think it is. Consider the surface of Ultima Thule. As long as the probe stays well away from all the excitement of inner solar-systems, space is a nice relaxed place to pass the eons.







                share|improve this answer












                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer










                answered yesterday









                ShapeOfMatterShapeOfMatter

                3765




                3765








                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                  $endgroup$
                  – forest
                  20 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  18 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  11 hours ago














                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                  $endgroup$
                  – forest
                  20 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  18 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                  $endgroup$
                  – ShapeOfMatter
                  11 hours ago










                • $begingroup$
                  @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Agrajag
                  11 hours ago








                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                $endgroup$
                – forest
                20 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                You wouldn't be able to plan a trajectory that far into the future due to uncertainties that arise from Lyapunov time.
                $endgroup$
                – forest
                20 hours ago












                $begingroup$
                @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                $endgroup$
                – Agrajag
                18 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                @ShapeOfMatter Half-life of Potassium 40 is only 1251 years, that would cut down on the juice quickly. (Presumably banana juice)
                $endgroup$
                – Agrajag
                18 hours ago












                $begingroup$
                @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                $endgroup$
                – ShapeOfMatter
                11 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                @forest: I'm mostly working off Wikipedia here, which suggests that even within a solar system it should be feasible to plan a trajectory 1Ky in advance.
                $endgroup$
                – ShapeOfMatter
                11 hours ago




                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                $endgroup$
                – ShapeOfMatter
                11 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                @Agrajag: No, you're off by six orders of magnitude! I picked K specifically because it's abundant and has a half-life of about a billion years. The down-side is that you'll need a lot of it to generate even a couple kilowatts.
                $endgroup$
                – ShapeOfMatter
                11 hours ago












                $begingroup$
                @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                $endgroup$
                – Agrajag
                11 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                @ShapeOfMatter Dead right, my error.
                $endgroup$
                – Agrajag
                11 hours ago











                4












                $begingroup$

                Sure it can. Every critical system must exist in multiple copies and the robot must be capable of manufacturing replacement parts when it finds accessible raw material (say, an asteroid that it can land on.) You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy. In the extremes your "robot" is really a swarm, anyone of which can rebuild the whole swarm if need be. The robot spends a lot of time checking it's data for errors and repairing corruption from other copies or from error-correcting codes.



                A swarm approach actually makes repair easier as it means you can go with total replacement on some suitable timescale, thus avoiding headaches caused by transmutation-induced weakening of parts and the slow evaporation that happens to everything.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$













                • $begingroup$
                  "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                  $endgroup$
                  – alephzero
                  4 hours ago
















                4












                $begingroup$

                Sure it can. Every critical system must exist in multiple copies and the robot must be capable of manufacturing replacement parts when it finds accessible raw material (say, an asteroid that it can land on.) You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy. In the extremes your "robot" is really a swarm, anyone of which can rebuild the whole swarm if need be. The robot spends a lot of time checking it's data for errors and repairing corruption from other copies or from error-correcting codes.



                A swarm approach actually makes repair easier as it means you can go with total replacement on some suitable timescale, thus avoiding headaches caused by transmutation-induced weakening of parts and the slow evaporation that happens to everything.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$













                • $begingroup$
                  "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                  $endgroup$
                  – alephzero
                  4 hours ago














                4












                4








                4





                $begingroup$

                Sure it can. Every critical system must exist in multiple copies and the robot must be capable of manufacturing replacement parts when it finds accessible raw material (say, an asteroid that it can land on.) You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy. In the extremes your "robot" is really a swarm, anyone of which can rebuild the whole swarm if need be. The robot spends a lot of time checking it's data for errors and repairing corruption from other copies or from error-correcting codes.



                A swarm approach actually makes repair easier as it means you can go with total replacement on some suitable timescale, thus avoiding headaches caused by transmutation-induced weakening of parts and the slow evaporation that happens to everything.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                Sure it can. Every critical system must exist in multiple copies and the robot must be capable of manufacturing replacement parts when it finds accessible raw material (say, an asteroid that it can land on.) You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy. In the extremes your "robot" is really a swarm, anyone of which can rebuild the whole swarm if need be. The robot spends a lot of time checking it's data for errors and repairing corruption from other copies or from error-correcting codes.



                A swarm approach actually makes repair easier as it means you can go with total replacement on some suitable timescale, thus avoiding headaches caused by transmutation-induced weakening of parts and the slow evaporation that happens to everything.







                share|improve this answer












                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer










                answered yesterday









                Loren PechtelLoren Pechtel

                19.5k2261




                19.5k2261












                • $begingroup$
                  "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                  $endgroup$
                  – alephzero
                  4 hours ago


















                • $begingroup$
                  "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                  $endgroup$
                  – alephzero
                  4 hours ago
















                $begingroup$
                "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                $endgroup$
                – alephzero
                4 hours ago




                $begingroup$
                "You can make a robot with any desired mean time to failure by application of sufficient redundancy" That assumes that you can predict in advance every possible single-point failure scenario of your robot swarm for the next billion years. Who knows exactly what happens when two super-massive black holes collide, for example? The EMP pulse might effectively destroy an entire galaxy, for all we know. And since EM travels at the speed of light, you don't get any advance warning!
                $endgroup$
                – alephzero
                4 hours ago











                4












                $begingroup$

                Your biggest problem is going to be entropy and redundancy.



                Entropy pretty much guarantees that anything, given enough time, will gp through molecular changes from the original. Atoms will migrate through the material, any exposed surface will diminish through vapor pressure, 'pure' substances will always become less pure, and after a billion years you will not have anything at the atomic level close to what you started with. So systems will have to be redundant to the extreme.



                Then, you have quantum effects. Quantum tunneling and indeterminacy. How do you prevent this from happening in critical systems?



                And, of course, there is radioactive decay. Elements change in physical properties as they go through such basic changes as emitting radiation.



                So is a billion years enough time for all of these things to affect critical systems? With today's level of technology, absolutely a certainty. No robotic system that we build will last a billion years.



                Consider recent history. As humans endeavored to reduce the size of computer chips, the first pentium processors began to suffer terminal illnesses. Turns out, the copper traces were so thin (atoms wide), that as high frequency electrons flowed through them and coursed around sharp corners, the electrons 'shortened' their path by rounding the corners into curved ones, and they began to short out on the traces beside them. Just the act of sending an electrical current through a copper wire is enough to cause it to change shape. So any computer chip microprocessor today is extremely unlikely to be operational in a billion years. It will be one huge mass of electrical shorts and cross signals. At most, it is extremely unlikely that any pentium processor in continuous use will last a hundred years without the circuits degrading enough to produce just random garbage in the data. Even twenty year old chips can no longer be relied upon in critical applications.



                And yes, that means any ICBM made more than twenty years ago, the electronics of which have not been replaced, should no longer be considered reliable enough to target and perform properly. ('Dang, it hit New York? It was supposed to be aimed for Moscow!!!!')






                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$









                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mazura
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday
















                4












                $begingroup$

                Your biggest problem is going to be entropy and redundancy.



                Entropy pretty much guarantees that anything, given enough time, will gp through molecular changes from the original. Atoms will migrate through the material, any exposed surface will diminish through vapor pressure, 'pure' substances will always become less pure, and after a billion years you will not have anything at the atomic level close to what you started with. So systems will have to be redundant to the extreme.



                Then, you have quantum effects. Quantum tunneling and indeterminacy. How do you prevent this from happening in critical systems?



                And, of course, there is radioactive decay. Elements change in physical properties as they go through such basic changes as emitting radiation.



                So is a billion years enough time for all of these things to affect critical systems? With today's level of technology, absolutely a certainty. No robotic system that we build will last a billion years.



                Consider recent history. As humans endeavored to reduce the size of computer chips, the first pentium processors began to suffer terminal illnesses. Turns out, the copper traces were so thin (atoms wide), that as high frequency electrons flowed through them and coursed around sharp corners, the electrons 'shortened' their path by rounding the corners into curved ones, and they began to short out on the traces beside them. Just the act of sending an electrical current through a copper wire is enough to cause it to change shape. So any computer chip microprocessor today is extremely unlikely to be operational in a billion years. It will be one huge mass of electrical shorts and cross signals. At most, it is extremely unlikely that any pentium processor in continuous use will last a hundred years without the circuits degrading enough to produce just random garbage in the data. Even twenty year old chips can no longer be relied upon in critical applications.



                And yes, that means any ICBM made more than twenty years ago, the electronics of which have not been replaced, should no longer be considered reliable enough to target and perform properly. ('Dang, it hit New York? It was supposed to be aimed for Moscow!!!!')






                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$









                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mazura
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday














                4












                4








                4





                $begingroup$

                Your biggest problem is going to be entropy and redundancy.



                Entropy pretty much guarantees that anything, given enough time, will gp through molecular changes from the original. Atoms will migrate through the material, any exposed surface will diminish through vapor pressure, 'pure' substances will always become less pure, and after a billion years you will not have anything at the atomic level close to what you started with. So systems will have to be redundant to the extreme.



                Then, you have quantum effects. Quantum tunneling and indeterminacy. How do you prevent this from happening in critical systems?



                And, of course, there is radioactive decay. Elements change in physical properties as they go through such basic changes as emitting radiation.



                So is a billion years enough time for all of these things to affect critical systems? With today's level of technology, absolutely a certainty. No robotic system that we build will last a billion years.



                Consider recent history. As humans endeavored to reduce the size of computer chips, the first pentium processors began to suffer terminal illnesses. Turns out, the copper traces were so thin (atoms wide), that as high frequency electrons flowed through them and coursed around sharp corners, the electrons 'shortened' their path by rounding the corners into curved ones, and they began to short out on the traces beside them. Just the act of sending an electrical current through a copper wire is enough to cause it to change shape. So any computer chip microprocessor today is extremely unlikely to be operational in a billion years. It will be one huge mass of electrical shorts and cross signals. At most, it is extremely unlikely that any pentium processor in continuous use will last a hundred years without the circuits degrading enough to produce just random garbage in the data. Even twenty year old chips can no longer be relied upon in critical applications.



                And yes, that means any ICBM made more than twenty years ago, the electronics of which have not been replaced, should no longer be considered reliable enough to target and perform properly. ('Dang, it hit New York? It was supposed to be aimed for Moscow!!!!')






                share|improve this answer











                $endgroup$



                Your biggest problem is going to be entropy and redundancy.



                Entropy pretty much guarantees that anything, given enough time, will gp through molecular changes from the original. Atoms will migrate through the material, any exposed surface will diminish through vapor pressure, 'pure' substances will always become less pure, and after a billion years you will not have anything at the atomic level close to what you started with. So systems will have to be redundant to the extreme.



                Then, you have quantum effects. Quantum tunneling and indeterminacy. How do you prevent this from happening in critical systems?



                And, of course, there is radioactive decay. Elements change in physical properties as they go through such basic changes as emitting radiation.



                So is a billion years enough time for all of these things to affect critical systems? With today's level of technology, absolutely a certainty. No robotic system that we build will last a billion years.



                Consider recent history. As humans endeavored to reduce the size of computer chips, the first pentium processors began to suffer terminal illnesses. Turns out, the copper traces were so thin (atoms wide), that as high frequency electrons flowed through them and coursed around sharp corners, the electrons 'shortened' their path by rounding the corners into curved ones, and they began to short out on the traces beside them. Just the act of sending an electrical current through a copper wire is enough to cause it to change shape. So any computer chip microprocessor today is extremely unlikely to be operational in a billion years. It will be one huge mass of electrical shorts and cross signals. At most, it is extremely unlikely that any pentium processor in continuous use will last a hundred years without the circuits degrading enough to produce just random garbage in the data. Even twenty year old chips can no longer be relied upon in critical applications.



                And yes, that means any ICBM made more than twenty years ago, the electronics of which have not been replaced, should no longer be considered reliable enough to target and perform properly. ('Dang, it hit New York? It was supposed to be aimed for Moscow!!!!')







                share|improve this answer














                share|improve this answer



                share|improve this answer








                edited 5 hours ago

























                answered yesterday









                Justin Thyme the SecondJustin Thyme the Second

                6606




                6606








                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mazura
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday














                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Mazura
                  yesterday






                • 1




                  $begingroup$
                  And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                  $endgroup$
                  – Justin Thyme the Second
                  yesterday








                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                $endgroup$
                – Mazura
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                +1. It's a question of what elements have a half life of two billion years.
                $endgroup$
                – Mazura
                yesterday




                1




                1




                $begingroup$
                And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                $endgroup$
                – Justin Thyme the Second
                yesterday




                $begingroup$
                And PLEASE don't tell me the Voyager spacecraft are still going strong. There are no pentium chips in these spacecraft. They were built using primitive chip technologies, using very wide traces.
                $endgroup$
                – Justin Thyme the Second
                yesterday











                1












                $begingroup$

                The chances for a modern day space probe to survive for 1 gyr and be anything but a metalrich asteroid are quite slim. How slim exactly depends on its speed and that it doesn't run into any big debris out there. While debris are rare and space is quite empty there is always a chance for bad luck. Speed and time are the factors here. If you plot a smart course with several solar flybys a few percent of lightspeed are on the table. Needless to say that this makes collisions way worse as
                Ekin = 0.5 * m * v^2.
                Even a few atoms might degrade the probe significantly at high speeds. Of course lower speeds could help, yet I assume you want the probe to get somewhere within 1 gyr.



                I'm not an expert on radiation induced material fatigue. Your probe will most likely suffer mostly from cosmic rays, but especially during solar flybys charged particle radiation will be an issue. Assume that the material will wither away over the eons.
                Your worst issue on the radiation front will be the breakdown of computers though. Look up the design of computers on mars rovers like opportunity for example.



                Less probable yet more intriguing story whise is data corruption. The mission (given more complex ai and some freedom to take decisions) statement might be "explore milky-way"; have some freak data corruption turn a r into a d and you have "explode milky-way". (Not very probable but an ai will do anything as long as it gets the reward circuit tickling).



                So the answer is no.
                BUT there might be a solution, albeit one using slightly future technologies.



                Don't aim for longevity, aim for maintenance. Pick a big (maybe 10 to 100 m diameter), metalrich asteroid and turn the whole thing into a probe. Reinforce it structurally to get meters of radiation and impact shielding. Have huge databanks and really smart or slavishly dumb, yet specialised AI. Most importantly you need manufactories capable of producing anything on the asteriod probe and redundancies for every system.



                For power you could employ a number of technologies. Nuclear reactors, (fusion or antimatter if available), radioisotope generators with an isotpe with a long (the desired mission time) half live, or solar panels during stellar flybys (you want to keep doing those as they counteract drag or slow you down if the system is interesting) (keep in mind that you can manufacture solar panels once you approach a system so the won't degrade). Generally beeing really conservative about using power will be helpfull as well. Let the probe hibernate during inter system flights and let it do the repair and exploration near stars where there is free energy and something to do.



                Now you might wonder how to move such a kiloton behemoth to interstellar velocities, yet thats not so hard. Huge lightsails, laser thermal rockets, nuclear rockets or even ion drives will move it eventually. Then you simply need to plot a very smart flyby course arround moons planets and suns and you might cruise of at a not insignificant portion of lightspeed. Astronomer Paul Birch once said that one could theoretically throw a pebble into the asteroid belt and end up crashing mars into the sun.



                Now even such a maintenance probe will run out of some resource (energy, ejection mass or raw materials) eventually or might degrade from collisions. (Come to think of it manufacturing, a huge thin mirror arround the probe when in a system seems highly beneficial. Use it as a high resolution telescope to scout out the system and the route ahead and use it as a solar sail to save ejection mass to get into an optimal gravity assist.) It is very conceivable that such a probe might survive for a billion years.



                PS:Check out this video, it deals with constructing a spaceship for similar ammounts of time.
                https://youtu.be/25ODAzr6Bbw






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$


















                  1












                  $begingroup$

                  The chances for a modern day space probe to survive for 1 gyr and be anything but a metalrich asteroid are quite slim. How slim exactly depends on its speed and that it doesn't run into any big debris out there. While debris are rare and space is quite empty there is always a chance for bad luck. Speed and time are the factors here. If you plot a smart course with several solar flybys a few percent of lightspeed are on the table. Needless to say that this makes collisions way worse as
                  Ekin = 0.5 * m * v^2.
                  Even a few atoms might degrade the probe significantly at high speeds. Of course lower speeds could help, yet I assume you want the probe to get somewhere within 1 gyr.



                  I'm not an expert on radiation induced material fatigue. Your probe will most likely suffer mostly from cosmic rays, but especially during solar flybys charged particle radiation will be an issue. Assume that the material will wither away over the eons.
                  Your worst issue on the radiation front will be the breakdown of computers though. Look up the design of computers on mars rovers like opportunity for example.



                  Less probable yet more intriguing story whise is data corruption. The mission (given more complex ai and some freedom to take decisions) statement might be "explore milky-way"; have some freak data corruption turn a r into a d and you have "explode milky-way". (Not very probable but an ai will do anything as long as it gets the reward circuit tickling).



                  So the answer is no.
                  BUT there might be a solution, albeit one using slightly future technologies.



                  Don't aim for longevity, aim for maintenance. Pick a big (maybe 10 to 100 m diameter), metalrich asteroid and turn the whole thing into a probe. Reinforce it structurally to get meters of radiation and impact shielding. Have huge databanks and really smart or slavishly dumb, yet specialised AI. Most importantly you need manufactories capable of producing anything on the asteriod probe and redundancies for every system.



                  For power you could employ a number of technologies. Nuclear reactors, (fusion or antimatter if available), radioisotope generators with an isotpe with a long (the desired mission time) half live, or solar panels during stellar flybys (you want to keep doing those as they counteract drag or slow you down if the system is interesting) (keep in mind that you can manufacture solar panels once you approach a system so the won't degrade). Generally beeing really conservative about using power will be helpfull as well. Let the probe hibernate during inter system flights and let it do the repair and exploration near stars where there is free energy and something to do.



                  Now you might wonder how to move such a kiloton behemoth to interstellar velocities, yet thats not so hard. Huge lightsails, laser thermal rockets, nuclear rockets or even ion drives will move it eventually. Then you simply need to plot a very smart flyby course arround moons planets and suns and you might cruise of at a not insignificant portion of lightspeed. Astronomer Paul Birch once said that one could theoretically throw a pebble into the asteroid belt and end up crashing mars into the sun.



                  Now even such a maintenance probe will run out of some resource (energy, ejection mass or raw materials) eventually or might degrade from collisions. (Come to think of it manufacturing, a huge thin mirror arround the probe when in a system seems highly beneficial. Use it as a high resolution telescope to scout out the system and the route ahead and use it as a solar sail to save ejection mass to get into an optimal gravity assist.) It is very conceivable that such a probe might survive for a billion years.



                  PS:Check out this video, it deals with constructing a spaceship for similar ammounts of time.
                  https://youtu.be/25ODAzr6Bbw






                  share|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$
















                    1












                    1








                    1





                    $begingroup$

                    The chances for a modern day space probe to survive for 1 gyr and be anything but a metalrich asteroid are quite slim. How slim exactly depends on its speed and that it doesn't run into any big debris out there. While debris are rare and space is quite empty there is always a chance for bad luck. Speed and time are the factors here. If you plot a smart course with several solar flybys a few percent of lightspeed are on the table. Needless to say that this makes collisions way worse as
                    Ekin = 0.5 * m * v^2.
                    Even a few atoms might degrade the probe significantly at high speeds. Of course lower speeds could help, yet I assume you want the probe to get somewhere within 1 gyr.



                    I'm not an expert on radiation induced material fatigue. Your probe will most likely suffer mostly from cosmic rays, but especially during solar flybys charged particle radiation will be an issue. Assume that the material will wither away over the eons.
                    Your worst issue on the radiation front will be the breakdown of computers though. Look up the design of computers on mars rovers like opportunity for example.



                    Less probable yet more intriguing story whise is data corruption. The mission (given more complex ai and some freedom to take decisions) statement might be "explore milky-way"; have some freak data corruption turn a r into a d and you have "explode milky-way". (Not very probable but an ai will do anything as long as it gets the reward circuit tickling).



                    So the answer is no.
                    BUT there might be a solution, albeit one using slightly future technologies.



                    Don't aim for longevity, aim for maintenance. Pick a big (maybe 10 to 100 m diameter), metalrich asteroid and turn the whole thing into a probe. Reinforce it structurally to get meters of radiation and impact shielding. Have huge databanks and really smart or slavishly dumb, yet specialised AI. Most importantly you need manufactories capable of producing anything on the asteriod probe and redundancies for every system.



                    For power you could employ a number of technologies. Nuclear reactors, (fusion or antimatter if available), radioisotope generators with an isotpe with a long (the desired mission time) half live, or solar panels during stellar flybys (you want to keep doing those as they counteract drag or slow you down if the system is interesting) (keep in mind that you can manufacture solar panels once you approach a system so the won't degrade). Generally beeing really conservative about using power will be helpfull as well. Let the probe hibernate during inter system flights and let it do the repair and exploration near stars where there is free energy and something to do.



                    Now you might wonder how to move such a kiloton behemoth to interstellar velocities, yet thats not so hard. Huge lightsails, laser thermal rockets, nuclear rockets or even ion drives will move it eventually. Then you simply need to plot a very smart flyby course arround moons planets and suns and you might cruise of at a not insignificant portion of lightspeed. Astronomer Paul Birch once said that one could theoretically throw a pebble into the asteroid belt and end up crashing mars into the sun.



                    Now even such a maintenance probe will run out of some resource (energy, ejection mass or raw materials) eventually or might degrade from collisions. (Come to think of it manufacturing, a huge thin mirror arround the probe when in a system seems highly beneficial. Use it as a high resolution telescope to scout out the system and the route ahead and use it as a solar sail to save ejection mass to get into an optimal gravity assist.) It is very conceivable that such a probe might survive for a billion years.



                    PS:Check out this video, it deals with constructing a spaceship for similar ammounts of time.
                    https://youtu.be/25ODAzr6Bbw






                    share|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$



                    The chances for a modern day space probe to survive for 1 gyr and be anything but a metalrich asteroid are quite slim. How slim exactly depends on its speed and that it doesn't run into any big debris out there. While debris are rare and space is quite empty there is always a chance for bad luck. Speed and time are the factors here. If you plot a smart course with several solar flybys a few percent of lightspeed are on the table. Needless to say that this makes collisions way worse as
                    Ekin = 0.5 * m * v^2.
                    Even a few atoms might degrade the probe significantly at high speeds. Of course lower speeds could help, yet I assume you want the probe to get somewhere within 1 gyr.



                    I'm not an expert on radiation induced material fatigue. Your probe will most likely suffer mostly from cosmic rays, but especially during solar flybys charged particle radiation will be an issue. Assume that the material will wither away over the eons.
                    Your worst issue on the radiation front will be the breakdown of computers though. Look up the design of computers on mars rovers like opportunity for example.



                    Less probable yet more intriguing story whise is data corruption. The mission (given more complex ai and some freedom to take decisions) statement might be "explore milky-way"; have some freak data corruption turn a r into a d and you have "explode milky-way". (Not very probable but an ai will do anything as long as it gets the reward circuit tickling).



                    So the answer is no.
                    BUT there might be a solution, albeit one using slightly future technologies.



                    Don't aim for longevity, aim for maintenance. Pick a big (maybe 10 to 100 m diameter), metalrich asteroid and turn the whole thing into a probe. Reinforce it structurally to get meters of radiation and impact shielding. Have huge databanks and really smart or slavishly dumb, yet specialised AI. Most importantly you need manufactories capable of producing anything on the asteriod probe and redundancies for every system.



                    For power you could employ a number of technologies. Nuclear reactors, (fusion or antimatter if available), radioisotope generators with an isotpe with a long (the desired mission time) half live, or solar panels during stellar flybys (you want to keep doing those as they counteract drag or slow you down if the system is interesting) (keep in mind that you can manufacture solar panels once you approach a system so the won't degrade). Generally beeing really conservative about using power will be helpfull as well. Let the probe hibernate during inter system flights and let it do the repair and exploration near stars where there is free energy and something to do.



                    Now you might wonder how to move such a kiloton behemoth to interstellar velocities, yet thats not so hard. Huge lightsails, laser thermal rockets, nuclear rockets or even ion drives will move it eventually. Then you simply need to plot a very smart flyby course arround moons planets and suns and you might cruise of at a not insignificant portion of lightspeed. Astronomer Paul Birch once said that one could theoretically throw a pebble into the asteroid belt and end up crashing mars into the sun.



                    Now even such a maintenance probe will run out of some resource (energy, ejection mass or raw materials) eventually or might degrade from collisions. (Come to think of it manufacturing, a huge thin mirror arround the probe when in a system seems highly beneficial. Use it as a high resolution telescope to scout out the system and the route ahead and use it as a solar sail to save ejection mass to get into an optimal gravity assist.) It is very conceivable that such a probe might survive for a billion years.



                    PS:Check out this video, it deals with constructing a spaceship for similar ammounts of time.
                    https://youtu.be/25ODAzr6Bbw







                    share|improve this answer












                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer










                    answered yesterday









                    TheDyingOfLightTheDyingOfLight

                    514




                    514























                        1












                        $begingroup$


                        Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




                        If you want a "real science" answer: No



                        Most people won't know this, so publish your story anyway - I'd read it.

                        Many people know that "Transistors don't have moving parts,"

                        but then wrongly believe that implies: "so they never fail."



                        If you're interested in the science:



                        Transistors built 50+ years ago are likely still working fine today if they were cared for properly, and may be expected to work without issue for 1,000 years in the future (maximum life approx 10,000 years).



                        Let's ignore the additional problems of traveling through space for even a century - as most of those (radiation/power/propulsion) are insurmountable given today's knowledge.



                        A probe that is 'smart' enough to be called AI would likely be based on current technologies.

                        Modern chips have very very small transistors with very very small connectors.



                        Part of the reason that integrated circuit voltages have gone down is that the smaller the "wires" the more troubles you have, like electromigration (as the device is used, current flowing through the circuit causes the metal to actually move around which can form opens or shorts in your circuit).

                        As transistors get smaller, you see problems that weren't even known recently such as Hot-carrier injection (where the switching characteristics of the transistor can be permanently changed).



                        A good read is "Transistor Aging" in IEEE. The article's focus is how to test transistors, but you'll learn some stuff related to your question if you read through it. It contains on of the better descriptions of Hot-carrier injection that I've encountered:




                        "Over time, charge carriers... with a little more energy than the average, will stray out of the conductive channel between the source and drain and get trapped in the insulating dielectric. This process, called hot-carrier injection, eventually builds up electric charge within the dielectric layer, increasing the voltage needed to turn the transistor on. As this threshold voltage increases, the transistor switches more and more slowly."




                        A slowing of switching (your probe's computer computes slower) and a need for increased voltage (your probe's power consumption increases over time) spell doom for a "real science" answer to a space probe that lasts a million years.



                        I will restate my opinion that your stories do not need to be completely based in 'real science' to be enjoyed.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$


















                          1












                          $begingroup$


                          Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




                          If you want a "real science" answer: No



                          Most people won't know this, so publish your story anyway - I'd read it.

                          Many people know that "Transistors don't have moving parts,"

                          but then wrongly believe that implies: "so they never fail."



                          If you're interested in the science:



                          Transistors built 50+ years ago are likely still working fine today if they were cared for properly, and may be expected to work without issue for 1,000 years in the future (maximum life approx 10,000 years).



                          Let's ignore the additional problems of traveling through space for even a century - as most of those (radiation/power/propulsion) are insurmountable given today's knowledge.



                          A probe that is 'smart' enough to be called AI would likely be based on current technologies.

                          Modern chips have very very small transistors with very very small connectors.



                          Part of the reason that integrated circuit voltages have gone down is that the smaller the "wires" the more troubles you have, like electromigration (as the device is used, current flowing through the circuit causes the metal to actually move around which can form opens or shorts in your circuit).

                          As transistors get smaller, you see problems that weren't even known recently such as Hot-carrier injection (where the switching characteristics of the transistor can be permanently changed).



                          A good read is "Transistor Aging" in IEEE. The article's focus is how to test transistors, but you'll learn some stuff related to your question if you read through it. It contains on of the better descriptions of Hot-carrier injection that I've encountered:




                          "Over time, charge carriers... with a little more energy than the average, will stray out of the conductive channel between the source and drain and get trapped in the insulating dielectric. This process, called hot-carrier injection, eventually builds up electric charge within the dielectric layer, increasing the voltage needed to turn the transistor on. As this threshold voltage increases, the transistor switches more and more slowly."




                          A slowing of switching (your probe's computer computes slower) and a need for increased voltage (your probe's power consumption increases over time) spell doom for a "real science" answer to a space probe that lasts a million years.



                          I will restate my opinion that your stories do not need to be completely based in 'real science' to be enjoyed.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$
















                            1












                            1








                            1





                            $begingroup$


                            Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




                            If you want a "real science" answer: No



                            Most people won't know this, so publish your story anyway - I'd read it.

                            Many people know that "Transistors don't have moving parts,"

                            but then wrongly believe that implies: "so they never fail."



                            If you're interested in the science:



                            Transistors built 50+ years ago are likely still working fine today if they were cared for properly, and may be expected to work without issue for 1,000 years in the future (maximum life approx 10,000 years).



                            Let's ignore the additional problems of traveling through space for even a century - as most of those (radiation/power/propulsion) are insurmountable given today's knowledge.



                            A probe that is 'smart' enough to be called AI would likely be based on current technologies.

                            Modern chips have very very small transistors with very very small connectors.



                            Part of the reason that integrated circuit voltages have gone down is that the smaller the "wires" the more troubles you have, like electromigration (as the device is used, current flowing through the circuit causes the metal to actually move around which can form opens or shorts in your circuit).

                            As transistors get smaller, you see problems that weren't even known recently such as Hot-carrier injection (where the switching characteristics of the transistor can be permanently changed).



                            A good read is "Transistor Aging" in IEEE. The article's focus is how to test transistors, but you'll learn some stuff related to your question if you read through it. It contains on of the better descriptions of Hot-carrier injection that I've encountered:




                            "Over time, charge carriers... with a little more energy than the average, will stray out of the conductive channel between the source and drain and get trapped in the insulating dielectric. This process, called hot-carrier injection, eventually builds up electric charge within the dielectric layer, increasing the voltage needed to turn the transistor on. As this threshold voltage increases, the transistor switches more and more slowly."




                            A slowing of switching (your probe's computer computes slower) and a need for increased voltage (your probe's power consumption increases over time) spell doom for a "real science" answer to a space probe that lasts a million years.



                            I will restate my opinion that your stories do not need to be completely based in 'real science' to be enjoyed.






                            share|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$




                            Currently, could a robotic, humanoid space probe (a successor to the Voyager 1) be able to last 1 billion years or longer out in space, as long as it doesn't take on any external damage?




                            If you want a "real science" answer: No



                            Most people won't know this, so publish your story anyway - I'd read it.

                            Many people know that "Transistors don't have moving parts,"

                            but then wrongly believe that implies: "so they never fail."



                            If you're interested in the science:



                            Transistors built 50+ years ago are likely still working fine today if they were cared for properly, and may be expected to work without issue for 1,000 years in the future (maximum life approx 10,000 years).



                            Let's ignore the additional problems of traveling through space for even a century - as most of those (radiation/power/propulsion) are insurmountable given today's knowledge.



                            A probe that is 'smart' enough to be called AI would likely be based on current technologies.

                            Modern chips have very very small transistors with very very small connectors.



                            Part of the reason that integrated circuit voltages have gone down is that the smaller the "wires" the more troubles you have, like electromigration (as the device is used, current flowing through the circuit causes the metal to actually move around which can form opens or shorts in your circuit).

                            As transistors get smaller, you see problems that weren't even known recently such as Hot-carrier injection (where the switching characteristics of the transistor can be permanently changed).



                            A good read is "Transistor Aging" in IEEE. The article's focus is how to test transistors, but you'll learn some stuff related to your question if you read through it. It contains on of the better descriptions of Hot-carrier injection that I've encountered:




                            "Over time, charge carriers... with a little more energy than the average, will stray out of the conductive channel between the source and drain and get trapped in the insulating dielectric. This process, called hot-carrier injection, eventually builds up electric charge within the dielectric layer, increasing the voltage needed to turn the transistor on. As this threshold voltage increases, the transistor switches more and more slowly."




                            A slowing of switching (your probe's computer computes slower) and a need for increased voltage (your probe's power consumption increases over time) spell doom for a "real science" answer to a space probe that lasts a million years.



                            I will restate my opinion that your stories do not need to be completely based in 'real science' to be enjoyed.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered 10 hours ago









                            J. Chris ComptonJ. Chris Compton

                            26016




                            26016























                                1












                                $begingroup$

                                Interesting question; this timeline will probably cause your craft to encouter issues never before seen. You will need some sort of material that is not easily affected by radiation. Perhaps Tungsten would be a good material for your craft's shielding? Tungsten is the densest metal on the planet.



                                Also, we currently struggle with computer memory degradation for long term storage, our best and most stable storage devices currently are, oddly enough, clay pots and magnetic tape. Crystal based memory has shown good potentiality for overcoming those challenges.



                                Superman style crystal memory storage. Think of the Fortress of Solitude.




                                Researchers at the University of Southampton have discovered a way to store data in five dimensions on nanostructure glass that can survive for billions of years.



                                The storage method enables up to 360TB of capacity on a disc about one-inch in diameter that can withstand temperatures of up to 1,000 degrees Celsius and has a virtually unlimited lifetime at room temperature (13.8 billion years at 190 Celsius).



                                "As a very stable and safe form of portable memory, the technology could be highly useful for organizations with big archives, such as national archives, museums and libraries, to preserve their information and records," the researchers said.



                                The technology has already allowed major documents from human history such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Newton's Opticks, the Magna Carta and the Kings James Bible, to be saved as digital copies "that could survive the human race," the researchers said.







                                share|improve this answer










                                New contributor




                                MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                                Check out our Code of Conduct.






                                $endgroup$









                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Agrajag
                                  yesterday








                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Mark
                                  yesterday
















                                1












                                $begingroup$

                                Interesting question; this timeline will probably cause your craft to encouter issues never before seen. You will need some sort of material that is not easily affected by radiation. Perhaps Tungsten would be a good material for your craft's shielding? Tungsten is the densest metal on the planet.



                                Also, we currently struggle with computer memory degradation for long term storage, our best and most stable storage devices currently are, oddly enough, clay pots and magnetic tape. Crystal based memory has shown good potentiality for overcoming those challenges.



                                Superman style crystal memory storage. Think of the Fortress of Solitude.




                                Researchers at the University of Southampton have discovered a way to store data in five dimensions on nanostructure glass that can survive for billions of years.



                                The storage method enables up to 360TB of capacity on a disc about one-inch in diameter that can withstand temperatures of up to 1,000 degrees Celsius and has a virtually unlimited lifetime at room temperature (13.8 billion years at 190 Celsius).



                                "As a very stable and safe form of portable memory, the technology could be highly useful for organizations with big archives, such as national archives, museums and libraries, to preserve their information and records," the researchers said.



                                The technology has already allowed major documents from human history such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Newton's Opticks, the Magna Carta and the Kings James Bible, to be saved as digital copies "that could survive the human race," the researchers said.







                                share|improve this answer










                                New contributor




                                MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                                Check out our Code of Conduct.






                                $endgroup$









                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Agrajag
                                  yesterday








                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Mark
                                  yesterday














                                1












                                1








                                1





                                $begingroup$

                                Interesting question; this timeline will probably cause your craft to encouter issues never before seen. You will need some sort of material that is not easily affected by radiation. Perhaps Tungsten would be a good material for your craft's shielding? Tungsten is the densest metal on the planet.



                                Also, we currently struggle with computer memory degradation for long term storage, our best and most stable storage devices currently are, oddly enough, clay pots and magnetic tape. Crystal based memory has shown good potentiality for overcoming those challenges.



                                Superman style crystal memory storage. Think of the Fortress of Solitude.




                                Researchers at the University of Southampton have discovered a way to store data in five dimensions on nanostructure glass that can survive for billions of years.



                                The storage method enables up to 360TB of capacity on a disc about one-inch in diameter that can withstand temperatures of up to 1,000 degrees Celsius and has a virtually unlimited lifetime at room temperature (13.8 billion years at 190 Celsius).



                                "As a very stable and safe form of portable memory, the technology could be highly useful for organizations with big archives, such as national archives, museums and libraries, to preserve their information and records," the researchers said.



                                The technology has already allowed major documents from human history such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Newton's Opticks, the Magna Carta and the Kings James Bible, to be saved as digital copies "that could survive the human race," the researchers said.







                                share|improve this answer










                                New contributor




                                MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
                                Check out our Code of Conduct.






                                $endgroup$



                                Interesting question; this timeline will probably cause your craft to encouter issues never before seen. You will need some sort of material that is not easily affected by radiation. Perhaps Tungsten would be a good material for your craft's shielding? Tungsten is the densest metal on the planet.



                                Also, we currently struggle with computer memory degradation for long term storage, our best and most stable storage devices currently are, oddly enough, clay pots and magnetic tape. Crystal based memory has shown good potentiality for overcoming those challenges.



                                Superman style crystal memory storage. Think of the Fortress of Solitude.




                                Researchers at the University of Southampton have discovered a way to store data in five dimensions on nanostructure glass that can survive for billions of years.



                                The storage method enables up to 360TB of capacity on a disc about one-inch in diameter that can withstand temperatures of up to 1,000 degrees Celsius and has a virtually unlimited lifetime at room temperature (13.8 billion years at 190 Celsius).



                                "As a very stable and safe form of portable memory, the technology could be highly useful for organizations with big archives, such as national archives, museums and libraries, to preserve their information and records," the researchers said.



                                The technology has already allowed major documents from human history such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), Newton's Opticks, the Magna Carta and the Kings James Bible, to be saved as digital copies "that could survive the human race," the researchers said.








                                share|improve this answer










                                New contributor




                                MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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                                share|improve this answer








                                edited 9 hours ago





















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                                answered yesterday









                                MBakMBak

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                                212




                                New contributor




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                                New contributor





                                MBak is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Agrajag
                                  yesterday








                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Mark
                                  yesterday














                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Agrajag
                                  yesterday








                                • 1




                                  $begingroup$
                                  A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                  $endgroup$
                                  – Mark
                                  yesterday








                                1




                                1




                                $begingroup$
                                Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                $endgroup$
                                – Agrajag
                                yesterday






                                $begingroup$
                                Welcome to the site MBak, please take the tour and read up in our help centre about how we work: How to Answer, How to Ask. What we look for is clear authoritative answers. Could you edit your answer to explain why you think lead tungtsten or mirrors would help? Also since the question has a science-based tag we would need an explanation of how the fortress of solitude works. Links expire, could you directley quote or write the salient bits that answer the question.
                                $endgroup$
                                – Agrajag
                                yesterday






                                1




                                1




                                $begingroup$
                                A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                $endgroup$
                                – Mark
                                yesterday




                                $begingroup$
                                A billion years is a long time. You'll need to deal with phenomena not seen on human timescales, such as evaporation of the metals making up the probe's structure.
                                $endgroup$
                                – Mark
                                yesterday










                                Nathan Hopp is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.










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                                Nathan Hopp is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.
















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